Cardboard packaging as an economic indicator

Cardboard packaging often goes unnoticed, yet it is the backbone of the supply chain, with everything from groceries to heavy machinery passing through a box before reaching its destination. A decline in demand for cardboard packaging is raising concerns across the US. More than just a shipping material, corrugated cardboard serves as a key indicator of consumer spending and industrial strength. When fewer boxes are produced and transported, it typically reflects reduced household consumption, cutbacks by businesses, and a broader slowdown in economic activity. It is estimated that close to 75-80% of all non-durable goods are shipped in corrugated cardboard containers.

Amid recent cuts, U.S. cardboard box makers have scaled back operations, with 9% of domestic production capacity set to shut down. That’s the steepest pullback the industry has made since the 2008 financial crisis. There are approximately 1,165 establishments are employing 90,546 people in the Corrugated and Solid Fibre Box Manufacturing sector.

Why the cardboard slump matters for the wider economy

• Falling demand for packaging acts as an early recession indicator, affecting jobs, supply chains, and corporate investment.

• Reduced orders hit paper mills, packaging plants, and timber suppliers, risking closures and layoffs.

• Rising input costs add pressure, potentially causing shortages.

• Businesses respond cautiously, delaying production and investment, which can weaken economic growth and market confidence.

Cardboard packaging demand will be closely monitored, as falling consumer spending from high borrowing costs and inflation could further reduce shipments. Additionally, innovations in sustainable or reusable packaging may permanently lower traditional box demand, signaling either efficiency gains or a structural decline for the industry.

Source: Monday Morning Economist: What Cardboard Can Tell Us About the State of the Economy. 8th September 2025.

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