How will a Trump presidency impact New Zealand trade?

With the US elections over and the Republicans securing the Senate and the popular vote, in-coming president Donald Trump had indicated that he plans to install a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, with additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods brought in from China. How does this impact New Zealand’s trade with the US? Will export revenue fall?

The tariffs would make New Zealand goods more expensive for U.S. buyers, potentially reducing demand, especially for price-sensitive items like meat, dairy, and wine. New Zealand might increase efforts to diversify its export markets, focusing more on markets like China or other Asia-Pacific countries with whom it has trade agreements. Overall the tariffs would reduce export revenue from the US.

New Zealand’s export of goods to the USA In the year ending September 2024, New Zealand exported $8.8 billion worth of goods to the United States, representing 12.7% of its total goods exports and making the U.S. its second-largest export market after China. Major exports included meat, dairy products, wine, and machinery. Key items included frozen beef ($1,584 million), fresh/chilled beef ($155 million), and sheep meat ($616 million). Wine exports to the U.S. totaled $762 million, with most being still white wine. In addition, New Zealand earned $7.4 billion in service export revenue from the U.S. (for the year ending June 2024), primarily from travel, business, cultural, and technology-related services.

Source: Monthly Economic Review – November 2024. New Zealand Parliamentary Service

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