New Zealand’s exposure to threat of US tariffs

The Trump administration tariffs have seen retaliatory actions by Canada, Mexico and China. New Zealand exports slightly more to the US than imports = $920m surplus in the year to January 2025.

New Zealand’s major exports include meat, dairy products and beverages (including wine) but hasn’t really been in the firing line at all on any of these tariffs except for steel and aluminium. Trump has indicated that he is looking at tariffs on imports of agricultural goods which would be a negative for the New Zealand economy. However there is an indirect impact on New Zealand with tariffs being imposed on the main trading partners like China, Australia etc. The higher prices imposed by tariffs could mean less disposable income in those affected countries and therefore less demand for New Zealand exports. Similarly, if other countries who produce similar products to us are subject to US tariffs, their exports could end up being re-directed to markets we compete in. The pie graph opposite is a breakdown of New Zealand’s exports and US imports by region.

Source: Westpac Weekly Commentary – 10th March 2025

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