Will the US economy experience stagflation?

The current situation in the US economy has the potential for a stagflationary period similar to that of the 1970s – high inflation and high unemployment. Trump is intensifying political pressure on US monetary policy amid rising inflation and supply-chain disruptions. His preference for a weaker US dollar echoes past economic challenges, including stagflation. The current climate also raises concerns about a potential global recession due to escalating uncertainty and trade tensions, exacerbated by recent tariff actions. These dynamics pose significant risks to both US and global economies, potentially stifling business and consumer confidence and hindering economic recovery. Trump’s tariff policies have rattled financial markets and sparked high levels of uncertainty over the future of the U.S. economy, resulting in recession fears. Trump has pledged that these trade policies will bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but has recently shown signs of de-escalating some tariffs, including the 145% tariff on China.

The video from the WSJ has the opinions of four chief economists—from JPMorgan, Moody’s, KPMG and the Economist Intelligence Unit—to lay out their forecasts for a potential recession, increased inflation and the Fed’s path forward.

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